I finally get to write something that pertains to the title of this site: gambling. There is no better way to start it off too than with College Football. College Football is the mecca of sports betting. It is 12 hours of pure chaos with billions of dollars being risked on 18-23 year olds. It’s as American as it gets. I used to be one of those people that said the NFL is more entertaining than the NCAA but now that I gamble I don’t know. The NFL has declined in quality in my opinion and it’s just not as fun to bet on. The lines are so small and there aren’t many advantages to exploit. With college football though there are a million teams and a million games so it is easier to pick some favorable spots and track sharp action. There is typically “sharp action” on a game when the % of money being bet on a team is significantly more or less than the % of bets which causes a line change. These “sharp” bettors typically place large amounts or have influence with sportsbooks and it is why the lines tend to shift. Sharp bettors aren’t always right so you can’t just try to track their every move, but it is useful to look at along with other factors. Now that I have rambled about gambling terms let’s get to some winners.

(To give you a warning before this next section just know that a lot of these picks won’t be marquee, primetime matchups. That isn’t how you make money in this sport, you make money by finding the advantages in the lesser known matchups since Vegas is less concerned about them due to the lower amount of bets placed on them)

Wake Forrest (-6) at Tulane, Thursday 8:00 P.M.

I know College Football technically already started but it really starts Thursday night and this game provides an opportunity for bettors. Tulane returns 9 offensive starters from last year including dual threat Senior QB Jonathan Banks. Not only that but they are at home and there is sharp money on them. According to SportsAction only 41% of bets are on them while 77% of the money is. That is a significant difference that leads me to believe that sharp money is on Tulane and when you consider the other factors as well I suggest hammering them.

Pick: Tulane +6

Kent State at Illinois (-16.5) , Saturday Noon

(Illinois’ real mascot was problematic so I used a picture of a dog from the google results)

Now this is a pretty bad game between two garbage teams, but there’s an opportunity here. The Kent State Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS (against the spread) in their last 5 non-conference games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. They also went 2-10 in the MAC last year which is pretty bad. Illinois wasn’t great and never really is but at least they play in the Big Ten and are tough on defense under Lovie Smith. They will also be at home and are seeing a difference of +36 between % of bets and % of money which means the sharps are on them. Don’t get me wrong this could go awry since Illinois isn’t that great, but taking a Big Ten team against a MAC team with these circumstances generally pays off.

Pick: Illinois – 16.5

UNLV at USC (-26.5), Saturday 4:00 P.M.

(This guy definitely mainlines meth at tailgates)

Now we finally get to a somewhat decent game. People are probably thinking “oh well USC is at home against a basketball school so I will pick them” but not so fast my friends. USC just lost Darnold who sort of carried them last year. They are a pretty big favorite against a UNLV team that is returning 12 starters and also a good QB in Armani Rogers. I mean you just can’t fail to cover the spread when the guy leading your team is named Armani. Also USC has a freshman QB which generally doesn’t bode well in Week 1. Lastly, sharp money is also on UNLV with 67% of money on them compared to the 56% of bets that are on USC. Jump on the Rebels.

Pick: UNLV +26.5

UMass at Boston College (-18), Saturday 1:00 P.M.

(Best Mascot in sports hands down)

Listen BC is the most overrated school on the planet when it comes to academics and sports. The best they ever were was with Doug Flutie the legend about 30 years ago and then Matt Ryan recently but even he couldn’t take them that far. They just aren’t that good and especially lately. Addazio had been putting out very good defenses but that changed a little when his coordinator Don Brown went to Michigan. Their offense is always horrendous because they NEVER have a good QB and rely solely on the running game. UMass is one of few independent schools and they really struggled the past few years, but they actually should be ok this year for UMass standards. They return a lot of starters including speedy wideout Andy Isabella. They already won a game this year so they are technically the best team in college football right now. Listen I’m not saying they’re going to win, but they should cover against a pretty bad offense in BC. Sprinkle a little dough on the money line if you want, but the pick is the Minutemen.

Pick: UMass +18

Lock Of The Week:

Army at Duke (-13.5), Friday 7:00 P.M.

When people think of Duke they think of basketball which is strange since they have won like 1 title in the last 8 years but I digress. Duke has actually been pretty solid at football lately. They aren’t going to beat Alabama but they can certainly beat non-power 5 teams. That is exactly what Army is since they play in the Patriot League. Now I know Army beat Duke last year, but Duke has always defended Army’s option pretty well. Duke’s defense is very experienced this year which means they should do even better at it. Duke should also see improvements to their offense due to the returning almost all their starters which will help in this matchup since offense is what held Duke back against Army last year. Duke is home which if you can’t tell at this point in the blog matters a lot in college football. They also see some heavy sharp action with 81% of the money on them as opposed to just 52% of the bets. Unfortunately I have to sacrifice my integrity and bet on Duke but hey money is green.

 

Take these picks at your own peril. I am trying to give out winners to help you win money. These are my best bets and jut a few of the ones I actually place.